Weekly Market Update: Bank of England and ECB keep rates unchanged

Weekly Market Update: Bank of England and ECB keep rates unchanged

Mon 17 Sep 2018

Read our full Market Update Week 37

Market Update

Equities rose across the board last week, both in local and Sterling terms. UK stocks gained +0.4% with US and Global stocks up +0.1% and +0.3% in GBP terms. Other areas fared even better, as European and Japanese equities rose +0.8% and +0.6% respectively. However, Emerging Market equities were down -0.5%. China lifted the ban on trading by expats last week while yields rose in the UK, US and Germany. US 10Y Treasury yields pushed closer to the 3% level, closing the week at 2.996%. Sterling gained against all major currencies, up +0.6% vs EUR , +1.1% vs USD and +2.1% vs JPY, as comments by the EU’s negotiator Michael Barnier suggested a that a Brexit deal is within sight. In USD terms Oil rose 0.7%, and is up +18.1% year-to-date, while Gold and Metals fell -1.3% and -1.2% respectively.

CIO Analysis

From London to Athens and from Dubai to Brasilia, most investment commentaries start with “In the US, data shows that….”. Whatever the home bias, the US economy has been the cornerstone of the post-WWII order, with most countries producing end goods for US consumers. This is very much the case today. US consumer health is paramount for the global economy. The US Dollar is the World’s reserve currency. And Wall Street is the beating heart of global finance. The recent Dollar rally has hurt Emerging Markets, with Turkey and Argentina bearing most of the pain. If the US economy falters, it will probably be felt around the world. If Wall Street has another Lehman-type heart attack, one can’t expect European or Japanese stock markets to soar. While the correlation is strong on the downside, one may not assume the same for the upside. As the US government looks inward, growth may become centred in the US., and o a pick up in US growth may not mean a pick up in global growth. The Federal Reserve warning about an overheating economy does not mean the BoE should raise interest rates. That B follows A, does not mean that A follows B, an argument which should be discussed in investment committees at quarter end.

David Baker, CIO