Weekly Market Update: Stocks sell off globally on rising bond yields
Mon 15 Oct 2018
Global indices suffered significant falls last week, down -4.1% in local terms and -4.5% in Sterling terms. US equities led the weak performance, experiencing their biggest losses in 8 months on Wednesday. Technology stocks were particularly affected as market participants reacted badly to rising bond yields. In all European, US and Japanese equities were down -4.8%, -4.5% and -4.1% respectively. UK equities were similarly affected, down -4.3%. However Emerging Market equities held up relatively well, boosted by returns in Brazil, where stocks surged early in the week as far-right presidential candidate Jair Bolsonaro took a commanding lead in the first round of voting. Sterling had a positive week, gaining +0.3% the US Dollar. Oil saw its worst two-day drop since July, down -4.5%, as oil futures were caught up in the stock market turmoil. Gold returned +0.8% in Sterling terms while metals fell -0.2%.
Equity markets have dropped over 5% in the past two weeks, a textbook “correction”. Interestingly enough there was no flight to the safety of bonds. In and by itself, the drop was largely technical, which means that no singular catalyst drove it. The growing concern for investors, however, is the Fed’s hawkishness, and its manifest shift away from previous “trader-friendly” norms, especially in times of stress. As a result markets have experienced more regular sell-offs this year. An additional concern, especially in the US, is that wage growth could eat into record net margins for companies large cap, which were trading 15% above their long term average. The action was exacerbated by the unwinding of popular positions by big funds, which signals a “take profit” stance ahead of November, the traditional year-end for hedge funds. What does this mean for investors? It means that volatility could remain high and that previous risks which the Fed was suppressing with excess liquidity could now derail the recovery. On the other hand, fundamentals such as growth, company earnings and consumer and business sentiment remain at their peak. Therefore we have not yet moved underweight risk assets, but are also reluctant to increase exposure to equities.
David Baker, CIO
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Stock indices in most developed market regions rebounded strongly after Monday’s acute sell off amid fears of Evergrande’s default - global stocks were up +0.7% in GBP terms. EU stocks were up +1.7% despite business activity losing steam, while US stocks rose +1.0% after recording their biggest daily drop since May 12th, on Monday. UK stocks rose by +1.0% as the BoE announced that rates will be unchanged; however holding a more hawkish stance. Globally, Energy stocks continued their upward trend posting solid gains of +4.0% followed by financials, IT and consumer discretionary. The US 10Y Treasury yield was up 8.9bps finishing the week at 1.453%, while the UK 10Y yield was up 7.4bps reaching 0.922%. Sterling fell by -0.4% and -0.3% against the USD and the Euro respectively. In US Dollar terms gold rose by +0.2%, while oil was up by +3.4%.
Global stocks were down -1.1% in Sterling terms last week amid fears of momentum fading and growth concerns due to the persistence of supply chain issues. Japanese stocks were the only region to post gains, rising by +3.8% in Sterling terms, buoyed by news of prime minister Suga stepping down and expectations of further stimulus. UK, US and European equities were all down -1.5% driven by inflation concerns and uncertainty about the economic outlook. Globally, all sectors exhibited losses apart from consumer discretionary. The US 10Y Treasury yields were up 1.7bps, finishing the week at 1.343%. German 10Y Bund yields were up +2.6bps to -0.332% after the ECB announced it would reduce the pace of its pandemic asset purchasing programme. Sterling fell against the US Dollar by -0.2% and rose by +0.4% vs the Euro. In US Dollar terms gold lost -2.1%, while oil was up by +0.7%.
US, UK and European equities were relatively unchanged in Sterling terms last week, faring -0.1%, +0.1% and -0.1% respectively, amid concerns that the rate of global growth could start decelerating. Japanese equities were up +4.0% despite the resignation of Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, while emerging market equities were up +2.7%, positive for a second week in a row after the Chinese tech sector had fallen significantly in previous weeks. Globally, stocks were up +0.3%, with energy and financials being the only sectors exhibiting losses. The US 10Y Treasury yield was down -1.5bps finishing the week at 1.322%. The German 10Y Bund yield was up +6.2bps amid higher than expected inflation in the euro area. Sterling was up +0.8% against the US Dollar and unchanged relative to the Euro. In US Dollar terms gold lost -0.1%, while oil prices rose slightly by +0.1%.
Market Update Global equities rallied last week, with US equities leading the way, up +1.4% in Sterling terms, boosted by 87% of US firms beating earnings expectations. European equities were up a similar amount in local terms, however up only +0.4% in Sterling terms. UK equities were up +0.2%, however Japanese equities fell -1.3%. With […]
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Equity market gains early last week were, broadly speaking, eroded as bond yields continued to rise, reaching one-year highs. Amid falling oil prices and rising political uncertainty caused by potential bans on vaccine exports coming out of the EU, many major equity markets fell last week. US equities fell -0.5% from record highs in Sterling terms, despite the country surpassing 100 million vaccinations on Friday. UK equities fell -0.7%, now down -2.4% from their 52-week highs in January. Globally the best performing sector was healthcare, whilst energy, due to oil prices, was the worst performing. Japanese equities rose +3.6% and are the best performing major equity markets this year. The US 10Y yield continued its rise up 9.6bps to 1.7%, while the UK 10Y rose 1.6bps to 0.8%. Gold rose +1.3% on the week. Oil has seen back-to-back weekly declines, down -6.1% to $61.2 a barrel, due to a glut of supply and weakening demand forecasts.
Markets returned to positive territory this week, supported in part by progress on the Biden stimulus bill. However, chair of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell’s speech, with a lack of updates to current policy, disappointed investors leading to a sell-off on Thursday afternoon. US equities rose +1.7% in Sterling terms. UK equities rose +2.5%, with UK equity markets benefiting from rising oil prices. Emerging Markets grew +0.9% in Sterling terms, although this was a more moderate +0.1% in local currency terms. Globally the best performing sector was Energy, whilst IT was the worst performing, as the rising yield environment impacted valuations. Japanese equities rose +1.0%. The US 10Y yield continued its rise, up 16.1 bps to 1.6%, while the UK 10Y fell 6.4bps to 0.8%. Gold fell -1.1% on the week. Oil rose sharply, up +8.4% on the week to $66.5 following the OPEC meeting where it was decided to hold production at current levels, when a rise in production had been anticipated.
A significant rise in US Treasury yields unsettled markets last week. US equities fell -1.9% in Sterling terms, with Tech stocks suffering their worst week in nearly six months. UK equities fell -1.9%, with Energy and Financials the only two positive sectors for the week. Emerging Markets suffered the greatest sell-off, having led global equity markets so far this year. UK and Emerging Markets are the only major equity markets still positive for the year in Sterling terms. Globally the only positive sector was Energy which was supported by rising oil prices. Investors will keep a keen eye on the OPEC+ meeting this week for any indication of increased oil supply. Japanese equities fell -2.4% in Sterling terms, the worst performing region year-to-date for UK investors. The US 10Y yield continued its rise, up 6.9 bps to 1.4%, at one point hitting 1.6%, and the UK 10Y rose 12.2 bps to 0.8%. Long-term yields are now trading at their highest level since the pandemic. Gold fell -2.3% on the week, while Oil rose +4.4% to $62.7.
Read our full Market Update Market Update US equities climbed +1.4% last week with, major indices setting new record highs, as US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell announced a shift in how the Fed views inflation, saying it won’t increase interest rates to respond to low unemployment levels and also won’t worry as much about […]
For the better part of the last three years the core of our investment policy has been simple: “Don’t fight the Fed”. As accomplished economist Mohammed El-Erian put it, Quantitative Easing is not the biggest game in town, it is rather the only game in town. Prices for risk assets are almost completely dependent on […]
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Global stocks were down -0.4% in local currency terms last week, however returns for UK investors were +0.3% after Sterling depreciated versus major global currencies, down -0.5% and -0.3% versus the US Dollar and the Euro respectively. US, UK and European stocks returned +0.3%, +0.4% and -0.3% over the week, whilst Emerging Markets equities posted […]
Hopes for a COVID-19 vaccine saw equity markets rally across the board last week, with global stocks up +2.8% in Sterling terms and +3.2% in local terms. EU equities led the way in Sterling terms, up +4.1%, with UK equities also experiencing strong returns of +3.4%. US equities gained +2.8%, although Emerging Market equities were […]
Equity markets sold off across the board last week, declining initially amid fears of a secondary wave of infections and a pessimistic outlook from the Fed, although there was a sharp recovery later in the week on additional stimulus expectations. In local terms global equities fell -2.5%. However due to Sterling weakness, in part due […]
Equity markets continued to steadily recover last week, with all regions positive or flat in Sterling terms and only Emerging Market Equities down in local terms. Markets have been reacting positively to the gradual opening up of economies across the world, even with some signs that the Coronavirus is re-emerging in areas such as Wuhan […]
Aside from UK equities, major equity market regions were positive in local currencies, boosted on Friday by reports that suggested a drug had shown positive results against COVID-19 in a clinical trial, as well as some relaxing, both planned and enacted, of restrictions in several countries. Sterling strength meant that some returns for UK investors […]
At our Investment Committee meeting in the first week of January we discussed amongst other things the heralded resolution of the trade war between the US and China, the fact that the US Federal Reserve was printing more money, and the renewed optimism that came from a stable government here in the UK. Cautious bullishness on risk assets was the tone of the meeting. Looking back at our discussion documents from that meeting, our ‘Wall of worry’ chart which details the things which we consider to be possibly obstructive to stock market gains, did not even mention coronavirus. In other words, we have experienced a true ‘Black Swan’ event. Global stock markets fell by 20% over the first quarter (around 15% for a Sterling based investor) having lost as much as 32% by mid-March. Gold performed its role as a safe haven rising 12% in Sterling terms, whilst Gilts rose by over 6%.
At our Investment Committee meeting in the first week of January we discussed amongst other things the heralded resolution of the trade war between the US and China, the fact that the US Federal Reserve was printing more money, and the renewed optimism that came from a stable government here in the UK. Cautious bullishness on risk assets was the tone of the meeting. Looking back at our discussion documents from that meeting, our ‘Wall of worry’ chart which details the things which we consider to be possibly obstructive to stock market gains, did not even mention Coronavirus. In other words, we have experienced a true ‘Black Swan’ event. Global stock markets fell by 20% over the first quarter (around 15% for a Sterling based investor) having lost as much as 32% by mid-March. Gold performed its role as a safe haven rising 12% in Sterling terms, whilst Gilts rose by over 6%.
Figure 1. US stock market returns in the last two weeks. The most significant development last week (other than the continued spread of the Covid 19 virus itself) was the 0.5% emergency rate cut announced by the US Federal Reserve which received a luke warm reception from markets. Over the last ten years we have […]
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