Weekly Market Update: Global stocks down for the week, capital flows to US bonds, UK budget contingent on Brexit
Mon 29 Oct 2018
Global stocks continued to slide this week, with US stocks leading indices lower, the S&P 500 falling -2.2% in Sterling terms. The NASDAQ lost -3% due to disappointing results from Tech companies and a drop in the Consumer Discretionary sector following a disappointing sales outlook from Amazon. Japanese stocks were particularly affected, falling -3.5%, while UK, European and Emerging Market equities lost -1.5%, -1.7% and -1.5% respectively. US 10 year Treasury yields closed the week at 3.08%, its lowest level in 3 weeks, as investors sought ‘safe’ assets. Indeed Japanese Yen gained +0.6% vs USD in the move to safe haven assets. Meanwhile Sterling fell -1.9% vs USD and -0.8% vs EUR. Oil fell -2.2%, whereas Gold returned +0.5% in USD terms.
Last week saw a broad-based correction in equity markets, with the US, the undisputed leader since the beginning of the year, losing the most as investors decided to take some profits given lofty valuations. News outlets have been focusing on how earnings reports from Amazon and Google have sent the S&P down 10%. However, the broad-based nature of the pullback, which was not led by Tech but by Energy, and the flows into bonds (US 10Y yields are now back to 3.07% and UK 10Y Gilt yields down to 1.37% from over 1.6%) suggest that investors are cautious. The question asset allocators need to answer is whether caution is warranted and likely to continue? More hawkish central banks, against a backdrop of benign inflation, trade wars and fresh European political tumult are all legitimate reasons to be cautious. But none of these is a traditional cycle killer, unless a catalyst degrades investors’ optimism such that they no longer buy market dips. As long as central bank hawkishness doesn’t manifestly slow the global economy (which it hasn’t), trade wars don’t stoke inflation (which they haven’t) and European politics don’t destroy the Euro (still there), investors are right to tread carefully, but it may be premature to significantly reduce risk assets.
David Baker, CIO
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Equity market gains early last week were, broadly speaking, eroded as bond yields continued to rise, reaching one-year highs. Amid falling oil prices and rising political uncertainty caused by potential bans on vaccine exports coming out of the EU, many major equity markets fell last week. US equities fell -0.5% from record highs in Sterling terms, despite the country surpassing 100 million vaccinations on Friday. UK equities fell -0.7%, now down -2.4% from their 52-week highs in January. Globally the best performing sector was healthcare, whilst energy, due to oil prices, was the worst performing. Japanese equities rose +3.6% and are the best performing major equity markets this year. The US 10Y yield continued its rise up 9.6bps to 1.7%, while the UK 10Y rose 1.6bps to 0.8%. Gold rose +1.3% on the week. Oil has seen back-to-back weekly declines, down -6.1% to $61.2 a barrel, due to a glut of supply and weakening demand forecasts.
Markets returned to positive territory this week, supported in part by progress on the Biden stimulus bill. However, chair of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell’s speech, with a lack of updates to current policy, disappointed investors leading to a sell-off on Thursday afternoon. US equities rose +1.7% in Sterling terms. UK equities rose +2.5%, with UK equity markets benefiting from rising oil prices. Emerging Markets grew +0.9% in Sterling terms, although this was a more moderate +0.1% in local currency terms. Globally the best performing sector was Energy, whilst IT was the worst performing, as the rising yield environment impacted valuations. Japanese equities rose +1.0%. The US 10Y yield continued its rise, up 16.1 bps to 1.6%, while the UK 10Y fell 6.4bps to 0.8%. Gold fell -1.1% on the week. Oil rose sharply, up +8.4% on the week to $66.5 following the OPEC meeting where it was decided to hold production at current levels, when a rise in production had been anticipated.
A significant rise in US Treasury yields unsettled markets last week. US equities fell -1.9% in Sterling terms, with Tech stocks suffering their worst week in nearly six months. UK equities fell -1.9%, with Energy and Financials the only two positive sectors for the week. Emerging Markets suffered the greatest sell-off, having led global equity markets so far this year. UK and Emerging Markets are the only major equity markets still positive for the year in Sterling terms. Globally the only positive sector was Energy which was supported by rising oil prices. Investors will keep a keen eye on the OPEC+ meeting this week for any indication of increased oil supply. Japanese equities fell -2.4% in Sterling terms, the worst performing region year-to-date for UK investors. The US 10Y yield continued its rise, up 6.9 bps to 1.4%, at one point hitting 1.6%, and the UK 10Y rose 12.2 bps to 0.8%. Long-term yields are now trading at their highest level since the pandemic. Gold fell -2.3% on the week, while Oil rose +4.4% to $62.7.
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Equities saw a third straight week of strong returns, with Japan the only region experiencing losses in Sterling terms (down -1.6%), although it was also positive in local terms (up +3.1%). US ADP National Employment figures showed fewer job losses, causing an initial spike in equities, which continued later in the week as it was […]
For a second week in a row it was green across the board for equities, as global stocks gained +2.4% in Sterling terms and +3.7% in local terms. European stocks were amongst the best performers for a second week, with Japanese equities performing equally well. Early in the week markets focused on the US returning […]
Equity markets sold off across the board last week, declining initially amid fears of a secondary wave of infections and a pessimistic outlook from the Fed, although there was a sharp recovery later in the week on additional stimulus expectations. In local terms global equities fell -2.5%. However due to Sterling weakness, in part due […]
Global stocks were down -0.4% in local currency terms last week, however returns for UK investors were +0.3% after Sterling depreciated versus major global currencies, down -0.5% and -0.3% versus the US Dollar and the Euro respectively. US, UK and European stocks returned +0.3%, +0.4% and -0.3% over the week, whilst Emerging Markets equities posted […]
Equity markets continued to steadily recover last week, with all regions positive or flat in Sterling terms and only Emerging Market Equities down in local terms. Markets have been reacting positively to the gradual opening up of economies across the world, even with some signs that the Coronavirus is re-emerging in areas such as Wuhan […]
Markets rallied throughout last week, however US equities closed lower on Friday and down -1.6% in Sterling terms for the week, with other regions following suit this morning, on concerns that tensions between the US and China could escalate due to accusations from the US administration over the origins of the Coronavirus. For the week, […]
Aside from UK equities, major equity market regions were positive in local currencies, boosted on Friday by reports that suggested a drug had shown positive results against COVID-19 in a clinical trial, as well as some relaxing, both planned and enacted, of restrictions in several countries. Sterling strength meant that some returns for UK investors […]
Last week (Friday 3 to Monday 13 April) global stocks rose on the back of an improved narrative regarding the Coronavirus pandemic, as markets see a ‘flattening of the curves’ and a reduced pace of new infections, while many countries weigh reopening their economies. Boris Johnson’s survival helped improve the narrative both for the UK […]
By regular standards it was a rocky week for equities, which rallied 2-3% in the first few days, but fell 4-5% later on. However in comparison to preceding weeks market moves were somewhat muted, perhaps because the news-flow has provided little further clarity as to the time-scale and magnitude of the COVID-19 crisis – markets […]
Download our Full Market Update here Market Update Global stocks saw a sharp sell-off last week after COVID-19 cases spiked in Italy, Iran and South Korea, pushing recession fears higher and expected corporate earnings lower for 2020. Global stocks fell -9.4% in Sterling terms, with US equities experiencing the quickest correction since the Great Depression, […]
Read our full Market Update Market Update Risk assets gained last week on the signing of the ‘phase 1’ trade deal between the US and China. Global stocks were up +1.9% in Sterling terms and +1.6% in local terms, reaching greater all-time highs. Returns for Sterling investors were pushed higher as the Pound fell on […]
Global stocks were down -1.1% in Sterling terms last week amid fears of momentum fading and growth concerns due to the persistence of supply chain issues. Japanese stocks were the only region to post gains, rising by +3.8% in Sterling terms, buoyed by news of prime minister Suga stepping down and expectations of further stimulus. UK, US and European equities were all down -1.5% driven by inflation concerns and uncertainty about the economic outlook. Globally, all sectors exhibited losses apart from consumer discretionary. The US 10Y Treasury yields were up 1.7bps, finishing the week at 1.343%. German 10Y Bund yields were up +2.6bps to -0.332% after the ECB announced it would reduce the pace of its pandemic asset purchasing programme. Sterling fell against the US Dollar by -0.2% and rose by +0.4% vs the Euro. In US Dollar terms gold lost -2.1%, while oil was up by +0.7%.
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Read our full Market Update Market Update A second straight week of strong performance for Sterling, up +1.7% vs the US Dollar and +1.2% vs the Euro as markets further priced in a Conservative victory at the coming General Election, once again mean that although global stocks were up in local terms, UK investors experienced […]
Last week saw a 3.5% pullback for global equity markets, the first since 2016. One reason is a deterioration in global economic data. The second factor is the Federal Reserve, who’s stronger language on inflation and growth, driven by the corporate tax cuts, has made investors realise that its consensus opinion of 2 rate hikes […]
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