Quarterly Investment Outlook: The undercurrents of the economy
Quarterly Market Update
Quarterly Investment Outlook: The undercurrents of the economy
Wed 20 Jan 2021
Quarterly Investment Newsletter Winter 2021
Had you somehow been fortunate enough to have slept through 2020, you would have awoken to find that global equities had risen by nearly 16% during the year and could be forgiven for thinking that the world economy was in rude health. The reality is, as we are all too aware, altogether different with buoyant markets owing their gains mostly to the monetary and fiscal measures put in place to combat the effects of Covid-19, and partly to an optimism that that this year will be far better for businesses than last. A continuation of loose monetary policy also helped provide positive returns for bonds. Gold benefitted from its safe-haven status and a fear of rising inflation to post a 20% return for the year. Commercial property and Oil suffered steep losses as a direct result of lockdown measures.
Quarterly Outlook: Beyond Covid
The persistent dichotomy between stock market performance and economic performance has been a particularly hard puzzle for investors. While it is very clear that the previous 12-year economic cycle has undoubtedly come at an end, the financial cycle, thanks to central banks, has survived a five standard-deviation event (1 in 3.5 million probability), and continues unabated. With the global economy in turmoil, can stock and bonds be trusted to create or even maintain wealth?
Quarterly Investment Newsletter Autumn 2020
Global stock markets built on the astonishing rebound from the Spring to post further, albeit more modest, gains during the third quarter of the year. Global stocks rose by nearly 5% in Sterling terms. That said, again the rises were far from uniform geographically, with US and Japanese equities posting strong returns whilst Europe struggled to a marginal positive return and UK equities lost further ground. Aside from Equities, Gold started the quarter strongly, but then sold off in early August as safe haven assets including the US Dollar retracted in less volatile markets.
Quarterly Investment Outlook Q3 2020: Covid Recovery and Anxiety
A quarterly report is not normally a difficult document to put together. Usually it consists of an account of the trending state of affairs, the more possible outcomes and risks to those outcomes. In the past few years, these reports were actually made easier. The US Federal Reserve was underwriting risk at such an unprecedented scale, nearly unwavering for more than a decade, in a manner which suppressed all major hazards to the economy and financial markets. Ever since 2010 the question, repeatedly, had been: “With opportunity costs driven down so much for so long, whatever can bring markets down?”
Quarterly Investment Newsletter Summer 2020
Global stock markets staged a remarkable comeback in the second quarter with the MSCI World Index up nearly 20% in Sterling terms. Whilst not recovering all of the losses from the high point in March prior to widespread lockdowns, global equities are nonetheless at higher levels than at the start of the year. Given the absence of any meaningful advances in the treatment of or vaccination for COVID-19 and that the corporate world is temporarily being held together by a variety of hastily created measures of government support, this optimism could be regarded as being somewhat misplaced.
Quarterly Investment Newsletter Spring 2020
At our Investment Committee meeting in the first week of January we discussed amongst other things the heralded resolution of the trade war between the US and China, the fact that the US Federal Reserve was printing more money, and the renewed optimism that came from a stable government here in the UK. Cautious bullishness on risk assets was the tone of the meeting. Looking back at our discussion documents from that meeting, our ‘Wall of worry’ chart which details the things which we consider to be possibly obstructive to stock market gains, did not even mention coronavirus. In other words, we have experienced a true ‘Black Swan’ event. Global stock markets fell by 20% over the first quarter (around 15% for a Sterling based investor) having lost as much as 32% by mid-March. Gold performed its role as a safe haven rising 12% in Sterling terms, whilst Gilts rose by over 6%.
Quarterly Investment Outlook Q2 2020
At our Investment Committee meeting in the first week of January we discussed amongst other things the heralded resolution of the trade war between the US and China, the fact that the US Federal Reserve was printing more money, and the renewed optimism that came from a stable government here in the UK. Cautious bullishness on risk assets was the tone of the meeting. Looking back at our discussion documents from that meeting, our ‘Wall of worry’ chart which details the things which we consider to be possibly obstructive to stock market gains, did not even mention Coronavirus. In other words, we have experienced a true ‘Black Swan’ event. Global stock markets fell by 20% over the first quarter (around 15% for a Sterling based investor) having lost as much as 32% by mid-March. Gold performed its role as a safe haven rising 12% in Sterling terms, whilst Gilts rose by over 6%.
Q1 Quarterly Investment Outlook: 2020: The Power of the Cycle
Following a flat third quarter, global equities rallied to the end of the year with the MSCI World index up over 7% in local currency terms. Returns for unhedged Sterling based investors were broadly flat as the Pound strengthened following the Conservative’s decisive general election victory. The late final rally was primarily driven by renewed optimism for a ‘phase one’ trade deal between the US and China, and left global equities up 25% for the year. It is of course important to note that, by contrast, markets ended 2018 in very pessimistic mood as the Fed continued to raise interest rates, and therefore a global equity return figure of around 8% from September 2018 is a more useful measure of equity returns.
Q1 2020 Outlook
Read our Full Quarterly Outlook The Power of the Cycle John Kenneth Galbraith, an irreverent but brilliant economist best known for his work on the Great Crash of 1929, famously lamented about his own profession: “the only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable”. As always, we toyed with the idea that […]
Mazars Wealth Management Investment Newsletter – Winter 2020
Read our full MWM Investment Newsletter Winter 2020 Following a flat third quarter, global equities rallied to the end of the year with the MSCI World index up over 7%. Returns for unhedged Sterling based investors were broadly flat as the Pound strengthened following the Conservatives’ decisive general election victory. The late final rally was […]
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