Thu 14 Apr 2022
The new year brought about a significant change of market sentiment as concerns about inflation and fundamental changes to monetary policy caused a reassessment of asset prices. The war in Ukraine has added to inflationary pressures particularly in commodity markets, as further disruption is expected in supply chains as China announces further lockdowns. Global equities sold off around -4.5%, although a strengthening US Dollar softened this fall for Sterling based investors. Geographically, proximity to the war in Ukraine told, with Europe down -7.4% compared to the US which only lost -2%. UK equities were the only major market in positive territory as previously unloved parts of the market came back into favour, not least the energy sector. The biggest moves though came in the bond markets where gilts fell by more than -7% as expectations of a higher number of interest rate rises grew. In contrast gold appreciated by nearly +10% for Sterling based investors.
From an economic standpoint, inflation is the single biggest factor exercising market analysts’ minds. What started as pressure brought about by Covid induced supply side disruptions and heightened consumer demand for manufactured goods, has now developed into significant commodity driven inflation which has knock on effects for large parts of the economy. The war in Ukraine and associated sanctions on Russia have brought about shortages in a variety of energy, agricultural, and industrial commodities, and these price pressures have removed the possibility of an inflationary episode which is short-lived and quickly resolved by the reopening of economies. To make matters worse, whilst much of the western world is learning to ‘live with’ Covid, China retains a zero-tolerance policy and use of extensive lockdowns to combat the virus meaning that supply side disruptions persist. The impact of increasing energy prices on the cost of living coupled with tight labour markets brought about by people leaving the workforce means that companies are under pressure to raise wages. Inflationary pressures abound.
The textbook central bank response to inflation is for monetary policy to tighten, i.e. for interest rates and the cost of borrowing to rise. Theoretically this mechanism dampens demand, slowing the economy, causing inflation to moderate. The challenge to this approach is the disconnect between local policies and inflationary forces in a globalised world. Raising interest rates in the UK will do nothing to the price of imported commodities, nor prevent the Chinese authorities imposing further lockdowns in manufacturing regions. In today’s interconnected world the tools available to central banks seem to be something of a blunt instrument. Nonetheless, both the Bank of England and the US Federal Reserve’s rate setting bodies have decided to increase the cost of borrowing in an effort to keep inflation under control, and their European counterparts are seemingly moving in the same direction. All will hope that rate rises will result in a ‘soft landing’ for economies, but historical precedents for this are few and far between.
The sell-off in global equities reflects these concerns of inflation and the ongoing uncertainty from the war in Ukraine. Markets do though continue to be supported by the volume of liquidity in the financial system, all of which needs to find a home. On the one hand higher inflation may discourage investors from holding cash and losing purchasing power, but on the other we expect liquidity to be withdrawn as quantitative easing begins to be withdrawn.
At our April meeting the Investment Committee voted to maintain our neutral position in equities, but to alter our positions so as to favour more defensive holdings and US Dollar denominated stocks. We maintain our underweight position in bonds and our overweight in gold, both of which have benefitted performance in the past quarter.
-David Baker, CIO
Despite higher interest rates and persistent (though falling) inflation, global equity markets continued to err on the side of optimism as consumer spending remained strong and company earnings were better than expected.
The last quarter of the year saw some relief for investors who had been hit from all sides throughout 2022 as markets rallied on the belief that the economy was perhaps showing enough signs of stress to persuade central banks to consider slowing, and then stopping interest rate rises.
The third quarter of the year saw markets start to second guess central banks’ resolve to raise interest rates in order to combat inflation. Expectations of a change in monetary policy gathered momentum and caused a rally in global equities of over +11% in a five week period. Alas this proved to be a short- lived bear market rally as central banks, led by the US Federal Reserve, signalled their determination to stay the course with rate rises.
Having been absent for decades, the return of inflation is forcing market analysts to learn how to respond to rising interest rates and squeezes on the real purchasing power of consumers’ disposable income. As interest rates rise, the notion of ‘There Is No Alternative’ is diluted, and the prospects for a slowing economy increase, leaving valuations on risk assets vulnerable despite the recent falls.
In no surprise to anyone, Covid-19 remained at the epicentre of all matters economic, and the emergence of the highly transmissible Omicron variant forced governments and public health officials to reassess the speed at which normal daily life can resume.
This quarter we consider the UK’s rising inflation and gas prices, look at how the shortage of workers is adding to inflationary pressures, and review the funds we use to invest in US Small Cap stocks.
'Work' may never be the same after the pandemic. How might things play out? What do businesses need to know to prepare? Read our quarterly economic update
Investing during the past twelve years has been underpinned by a basic principle: market participants have been encouraged to take risks, mainly to offset the trust shock that came with the 2008 financial crisis (GFC). Each time equity prices have fallen significantly, the Federal Reserve, the world’s de facto central bank, would suggest an increase in money printing, or actually go ahead with it if volatility persisted. Bond prices, meanwhile, kept going up, as central banks and pension funds were all too happy to relieve private investors of their bond holdings even at negative yields. Market risk was all but underwritten.
Rising concerns for the prospects of inflation dominated the first quarter of 2021 and caused bond market yields to rise in both the US and the UK. As a result, US treasuries lost over -5% of their value (in Sterling terms) during the period, whilst the loss on gilts was even greater at just shy […]
Inflation expectations rising scared lethargic bond markets and became the most contentious subject of debate in the first three months of the year. Read our outlook to find our position on inflation and the impact on risk assets
Had you somehow been fortunate enough to have slept through 2020, you would have awoken to find that global equities had risen by nearly 16% during the year and could be forgiven for thinking that the world economy was in rude health. The reality is, as we are all too aware, altogether different with buoyant markets owing their gains mostly to the monetary and fiscal measures put in place to combat the effects of Covid-19, and partly to an optimism that that this year will be far better for businesses than last. A continuation of loose monetary policy also helped provide positive returns for bonds. Gold benefitted from its safe-haven status and a fear of rising inflation to post a 20% return for the year. Commercial property and Oil suffered steep losses as a direct result of lockdown measures.
Quarterly Investment Outlook Q1 2021
The persistent dichotomy between stock market performance and economic performance has been a particularly hard puzzle for investors. While it is very clear that the previous 12-year economic cycle has undoubtedly come at an end, the financial cycle, thanks to central banks, has survived a five standard-deviation event (1 in 3.5 million probability), and continues unabated. With the global economy in turmoil, can stock and bonds be trusted to create or even maintain wealth?
Global stock markets built on the astonishing rebound from the Spring to post further, albeit more modest, gains during the third quarter of the year. Global stocks rose by nearly 5% in Sterling terms. That said, again the rises were far from uniform geographically, with US and Japanese equities posting strong returns whilst Europe struggled to a marginal positive return and UK equities lost further ground. Aside from Equities, Gold started the quarter strongly, but then sold off in early August as safe haven assets including the US Dollar retracted in less volatile markets.
A quarterly report is not normally a difficult document to put together. Usually it consists of an account of the trending state of affairs, the more possible outcomes and risks to those outcomes. In the past few years, these reports were actually made easier. The US Federal Reserve was underwriting risk at such an unprecedented scale, nearly unwavering for more than a decade, in a manner which suppressed all major hazards to the economy and financial markets. Ever since 2010 the question, repeatedly, had been: “With opportunity costs driven down so much for so long, whatever can bring markets down?”
Global stock markets staged a remarkable comeback in the second quarter with the MSCI World Index up nearly 20% in Sterling terms. Whilst not recovering all of the losses from the high point in March prior to widespread lockdowns, global equities are nonetheless at higher levels than at the start of the year. Given the absence of any meaningful advances in the treatment of or vaccination for COVID-19 and that the corporate world is temporarily being held together by a variety of hastily created measures of government support, this optimism could be regarded as being somewhat misplaced.
At our Investment Committee meeting in the first week of January we discussed amongst other things the heralded resolution of the trade war between the US and China, the fact that the US Federal Reserve was printing more money, and the renewed optimism that came from a stable government here in the UK. Cautious bullishness on risk assets was the tone of the meeting. Looking back at our discussion documents from that meeting, our ‘Wall of worry’ chart which details the things which we consider to be possibly obstructive to stock market gains, did not even mention coronavirus. In other words, we have experienced a true ‘Black Swan’ event. Global stock markets fell by 20% over the first quarter (around 15% for a Sterling based investor) having lost as much as 32% by mid-March. Gold performed its role as a safe haven rising 12% in Sterling terms, whilst Gilts rose by over 6%.
At our Investment Committee meeting in the first week of January we discussed amongst other things the heralded resolution of the trade war between the US and China, the fact that the US Federal Reserve was printing more money, and the renewed optimism that came from a stable government here in the UK. Cautious bullishness on risk assets was the tone of the meeting. Looking back at our discussion documents from that meeting, our ‘Wall of worry’ chart which details the things which we consider to be possibly obstructive to stock market gains, did not even mention Coronavirus. In other words, we have experienced a true ‘Black Swan’ event. Global stock markets fell by 20% over the first quarter (around 15% for a Sterling based investor) having lost as much as 32% by mid-March. Gold performed its role as a safe haven rising 12% in Sterling terms, whilst Gilts rose by over 6%.
Following a flat third quarter, global equities rallied to the end of the year with the MSCI World index up over 7% in local currency terms. Returns for unhedged Sterling based investors were broadly flat as the Pound strengthened following the Conservative’s decisive general election victory. The late final rally was primarily driven by renewed optimism for a ‘phase one’ trade deal between the US and China, and left global equities up 25% for the year. It is of course important to note that, by contrast, markets ended 2018 in very pessimistic mood as the Fed continued to raise interest rates, and therefore a global equity return figure of around 8% from September 2018 is a more useful measure of equity returns.
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