Weekly Market Update: Equities rally ahead of US midterms

Weekly Market Update: Equities rally ahead of US midterms

Mon 05 Nov 2018

Read our full Market Update Week 44

Market Update

Global stocks rebounded this week, with Emerging Market equites soaring over 5% in GBP terms. The S&P 500 was up 1.9% and Japanese equities saw a healthy rebound returning 3.4%. US 10-year Treasury yields rose to 3.22%, but didn’t break through 3.25%, a resistance level investors are watching carefully. Sterling rose 1.6% vs USD on optimism that a good Brexit deal may be achieved. The Chinese Renminbi has been declining vs the Dollar, and 1 USD now trades for 6.92 CNY and is quickly approaching 7.00; a depreciating currency will have a significant impact on both the political and economical landscape the two powerhouses find themselves navigating. WTI Crude Oil fell over 4.5%, with many expecting this decline to continue into 2019 as global growth slows and demand fades. Gold remained relatively flat throughout the week in USD terms.

CIO Analysis

A major issue which may have gone unnoticed by markets is Angela Merkel’s stepping down from her position as party chair. Although she is set to remain as chancellor in until 2021, Ms Merkel continues to lose support in Germany, which puts her in a weaker position to lead Europe. Mr. Schauble’s proposition is that she is succeeded by Friedrich Mertz, an old rival who was driven out of politics a decade ago. The suggestion is indicative of how fractured the Christian Democratic Party is. Europe’s de facto leaders will go through a period of soul searching. The timing of this is far from auspicious. In Germany, less mainstream parties like the Greens and the AfD are increasingly calling for fresh elections, emboldened by recent electoral success. Deutsche Bank remains under pressure. Mr. Draghi, the ECB Chairman and European figurehead, is set to retire next year. Italy is run by populist parties, and populist influence is growing in Spain, Portugal, Austria and Eastern Europe, while Britain is leaving. All this against a backdrop of a cycle that has already run for ten years. Asset allocators need to be very selective about European exposure and take into consideration the possibility of a difficult macro and political environment.

David Baker, CIO